The Daily Star

Fri. April 16, 2004    

Point-Counterpoint


 
Water development for a better future
Md. Saeedur Rahman

Water is the single-most important resource for the well-being of nation's population but unfortunately its 
management faces immense challenge. The most critical of these are alternating flood and water scarcity during 
the wet and the dry seasons, ever-expanding water needs of a growing economy and population, and massive river 
sedimentation and bank erosion. Main sources of water are rainfall, river flows and groundwater. The average 
annual rainfall is 2300mm. River flows have huge seasonal variations with the combined flow of the Ganges and 
the Brahmaputra typically increasing from less than 10,000m3/s early in the year to a peak of 80,000 to 140,000 m3/s 
in late August or early September. Alluvial aquifers are recharged through rainfall and flooding and replenish every 
year, except in areas where groundwater abstraction exceeds recharge. 

Efforts to formulate a water resources management plan aimed at enhanced agricultural production date back to the 
early 1960s. Following the severe floods in 1954 and 1955, several studies were undertaken and plan developed in 
Krug Mission Report of 1957, General Hardin's Report of 1963 and Professor Thijsee's Report of 1964. A master plan 
was drawn up in 1964. Its proposals centred on large-scale public works involving embankment, pumping station and 
irrigation canal. The Land and Water Sector Study in 1972 recognised the problems of large-scale conventional flood 
control and irrigation schemes in a setting with high population density and a complex water regime. This suggested 
for flood control, small-scale quick-yielding projects with low gestation period in shallow flooded areas. 
Indiscriminate and extensive use of surface and groundwater and increasing demand in other sub-sectors (e.g. navigation, 
fishery etc.) led the nation during early eighties to consider that assessment of water resources in the country and 
their rational allocation for different sub-sectors was essential. Thus emerged the NWP-I in 1987 and updated as NWP-II 
in 1991. 

The Flood Action Plan (FAP) triggered by the severe floods of 1987 and 1988 introduced some innovative ideas like the 
concept of controlled floodplain areas. A widespread criticism of these plans was that the social and environmental 
impacts of water resources development were not being addressed. Responding to this Bangladesh Water and Flood 
Management Strategy in 1995 recommended that the government should formulate a National Water Policy (NWPo) that 
address these issues and that a comprehensive National Water Management Plan (NWMP) be prepared within this framework. 
Understanding well that water is not infinite and cannot be treated as free gift of nature to be used in any manner 
chosen, the government started the preparation of the NWMP. The Development Strategy of the NWMP had accordingly been 
adopted by the government and the plan is now approved by the National Water Resources Council in March, 2004. 

The NWPo is designed to "ensure continued progress towards fulfilling the national goals of economic development, 
poverty alleviation, food security, public health and safety, decent standard of living for the people and protection 
of the natural environment." The policy aims to provide direction to all agencies working with the water sector, and 
institutions that relate to the water sector in one form or another, for achievement of specified objectives. The policy 
statements of the related sectors provide an extensive framework for management of the water sector. Apparently there 
are no major contradictions amongst them. There are however some gaps in terms of water planning. The main policy gap 
is in land use planning. Principles need to be established that will guide management of the massive urban expansion 
expected over the next 25 years. Future land use planning needs to take account of the plans and capacities of other 
sectors. 

The broad-based NWMP has been guided by the goals and objectives of the NWPo. The development objective of the NWMP 
has been founded on six clearly defined national goals such as economic development, public health and safety, poverty 
alleviation, decent standard of living for the people, food security and protection of the natural environment. The 
plan in its analytical phase of the planning process made assessment of the needs arising within the human and physical 
environments and arising from these, national goals and policy directives. In order to reflect various strategic 
prioritisations of the national goals three different options namely the Balanced Development Strategy, Economic 
Growth Strategy and Health and Environment Strategy were considered. The Balanced Development Strategy wherein selecting 
Institutional Measures and Development Measures equal importance has been given to all six national goals, was approved 
by the government. The threats in the resources planning can however be seen as following: 


@ Absolute size of the population is to increase by 40 percent over the time-base of the NWMP 

@ Agriculture land will be reduced by 20 percent because of land erosion, urbanisation and other reasons 

@ Increase in yields of 2 percent per annum is necessary to sustain the current per capita production levels 

@ Re-conciliation of 20 per cent land under afforestation with other sectors' demands for land 

@ Fall of agriculture's share of GDP from 50 percent in 1970 to 21.9 percent in 2002 

@ Slower accretion of coastal lands 

@ The nation is one of the countries most at risk if global climate change manifests itself in the form expected by 
the International Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) 

@ International co-operation on the rivers has been limited and to the contrary, stays surmounted by unilateral upstream 
withdrawal. Exchange of hydro-data on impending floods is inadequate and on water quality, non-existent 

Apart from above, the woolwork of the NWMP in few key fabrics can be assessed in the following specific areas: 


Sharing water: Of the 57 transboundary rivers, Bangladesh has only one agreement for water sharing on the Ganges. 
While critically examining the water sharing agreement/treaty between the Government of Bangladesh and the Government 
of India to assess their relative merits in terms of the dry season water availability, it has been found that the dry 
season flow at Hardinge Bridge has dropped significantly after commissioning of Farakka Barrage in India. As far as the 
performance of the 1996 and 1977 agreements are concerned, the latter performed better than the former during simulations 
based on pre-Farakka average dry season flow. This indicates that international co-operation and treaties have a 
significant role in nation's water resources management plan. A thrust is essential to be put on devising tools for 
negotiating with the international community for acquiring an enabling environment to assist implementation of the plan. 
The plan is the basis for the future steps. 

Disaster management: Cataclysms are a relatively common concurrence. In the last fifty years cyclonic storms have been 
responsible for a large number of deaths and damaged infrastructures. The 3 out of 10 worst natural disasters of the 
20th century in the world occurred in the country in 1942, 1970 and 1991 what resulted in 500,000 people dead. The 
country has a yearly average of over 44,000 deaths from disaster, the highest average in the world, according to the 
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The approach adopted for the NWMP addresses 
mitigation rather than prevention of the water related disasters. The instant directions towards immediate pre-disaster 
protection to life and properties of people most at risk and, the post-disaster rehabilitation of 123 coastal polders 
with thousands of infrastructures need to be included in the future investment portfolio. The plan has unfolded the 
umbrella for the water professionals to cater for the problems. 

Climate change: Climate change impacts were investigated through the simulation of the possible situation in 2030 
allowing for information derived from a number of Global Models. Only increased sea levels (+300mm), increased 
discharges of the River Meghna (+14%) and increased precipitation (+7.5%) were allowed. The analysis indicated an 
increased surge height of between 5 per cent and 20 per cent. Climate change threat for Bangladesh is integrally 
related to the country's sustainable development. While development could facilitate the introduction of adaptation 
measures, given the overriding, magnitude of various sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts, climate change offers a 
major threat to sustainable development itself. The case of Bangladesh is unique in the sense that: unlike other 
vulnerable island countries, this country will eventually face the multidimensional manifestations of climate change 
(e.g. flood, cyclone, sea level rise, drainage congestion, salinity, drought etc). The extreme vulnerability is a 
strong negotiating tool for Bangladesh in the global sustainable development discourse. Rather than being mutually 
exclusive, adapting to climate change should be seen as a requirement for sustainable development, and mainstreamed 
in national developmental endeavours. This means that climate change as an issue must come out of the label of 
"knowledge gap" to take centre stage in implementation of the plan. 

Agriculture labor employment: Bangladesh is predominantly an agricultural country and its economy is still largely 
dependent on agriculture. Between 1984 and 1995, share of agriculture to GDP declined from 41.77 percent to 32.77 
percent while the share of the manufacturing and services sectors went up. Despite this, agriculture continues to 
be the largest provider of jobs. The composition of GDP on agriculture has further declined to 21.9 percent in 2002 
from 50 percent in 1970 resulting in corresponding reduction in rural labour employment in agriculture. The eco-migration 
of agricultural labour at this point of declining requires to be equated to planned management of water resources that 
eventually over the NWMP time-frame shall have impacts on rural labour employment. The plan has stimulated the water 
professionals for integration and harmonization in future developments of related sectors. 

Rainwater harvesting: People of the Indian Sub-continent have an ancient tradition of rainwater harvesting. Rain water 
harvesting, generally a socially attractive alternative to large interventions, provides opportunities for decentralised, 
community-based management of water resources designed to deflate poverty. In the recent days, this has been revived in 
many parts of India and even beyond. The 4th Dhaka Declaration adapted on a two-day international conference held in 
January, 2002 on 'Arsenic Contamination of Ground Water : Causes, Effects and Remedies' recommended use of rain water 
to avoid arsenic related disease. Several NGO forums are already storing rainwater at different southern parts of the 
country for harvesting pure, arsenic-free water. The plan has paved the way for the planners to articulate the available 
sources of water for its efficient management. 

The illuminating National Water Management Plan heading for a better future of the nation continues to remain monstered 
by the upcoming election manifesto of giant river linking project of India declared by its Deputy Prime Minister after 
the President and the Prime Minister. On the face of this, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh on 24 March, 2004 in the 
parliament urged upon all irrespective of the party affiliations, to resist water withdrawal by India with directives 
to resolve the bilateral conflict on water issue by taking it up to international level as well as discussing at 
diplomatic and Joint Rivers Commission levels. The nation's water professionals now have the National Water Management 
Plan to navigate through and in between for formulating a definite strategy to negotiate with the national and 
international community, keeping in mind the ruse of dialogues. 

Md. Saeedur Rahman is Chief Engineer,Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project 

(BWDB, Dhaka).